Federal Reserve Study Claims These 5 Indicators Predict Recessions

Market Movers
4 min readFeb 6, 2023

When it comes to forecasting the economy, there are so many indicators we can look at. The list seems endless, whether that’s unemployment, exchange rates or even yield curves.

However, a recent study by Michael Kiley, an economist at the Federal Reserve, looked at the relationship between indicators and business cycles to see which ones were better across different time horizons. He came up with a list of five indicators that could be used to forecast recessions.

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